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Solar panel cost in 2026, now that the tax credit is gone

The 30% federal residential credit expired on 31 December 2025. Most calculators still subtract it, which makes solar look several thousand dollars cheaper than it is. This one does not — and it checks your roof age, because that is the other number nobody mentions.

Rates and rules reviewed August 2026

Check the date on any solar quote you have been given Section 25D was repealed by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed 4 July 2025, and expired at the end of that year. A homeowner buying with cash or a loan in 2026 receives $0 in federal tax credits. If a quote or an online calculator still shows “after 30% federal credit”, it is working from last year's rules and the real number is roughly 30% higher.

Solar cost and payback estimate

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Your average across the year, not a summer peak.
It is on your bill. The US average is around 17¢; California and the Northeast run far higher.
Sets both peak sun hours and the local price per watt.
Tile and slate are slower and riskier to mount on, so they cost more per watt.
The number most solar calculators ignore. It decides whether you pay twice.
Going past 100% only pays where net metering is generous.
Adds backup power, not usually payback. Worth it where outages are frequent.
This decides who, if anyone, gets a federal credit.
Look yours up on DSIRE. With the federal credit gone, this is the main lever left.

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What happened to the 30% credit

The Residential Clean Energy Credit, Section 25D of the tax code, paid 30% of a home solar system back as a federal tax credit. Under the Inflation Reduction Act it was scheduled to run at 30% through 2032, then step down to 26% and 22%.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act — Public Law 119-21, signed 4 July 2025 — repealed it roughly seven years early. Expenditures for residential solar made after 31 December 2025 do not qualify, and the IRS treats an expenditure as made when installation is complete. A signed contract or a paid deposit in 2025 was not enough; the system had to be finished and operational.

How you payFederal credit in 2026Who claims it
Cash$0Nobody
Solar loan$0Nobody
Lease30% under Section 48EThe provider, not you
PPA30% under Section 48EThe provider, not you
Section 48E, the commercial credit, survives. Because a lease or PPA provider owns the hardware, they claim it and may pass some of it through as a lower rate.
Section 25C went the same way The efficiency credit that covered heat pumps, windows and insulation also expired at the end of 2025. If you are pricing several projects at once, the same warning applies to all of them — see the HVAC estimator and window estimator.

What solar costs per watt

Solar is priced in dollars per watt of installed capacity, which is the only way to compare quotes for systems of different sizes. Divide any quoted total by the system wattage and you have the one number that matters.

System sizeAt $2.58/WAt $3.20/WSuits
4 kW$10,300$12,800Small home, low usage
6 kW$15,500$19,200Modest usage
8 kW$20,600$25,600Common size
10 kW$25,800$32,000Average home
12 kW$31,000$38,400The average quoted system
15 kW$38,700$48,000Large home or EV charging
Gross price before any state incentive. Marketplace quotes average about $2.58 per watt; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory put the median for cash purchases at $3.50 per watt in its October 2025 release. Both are real — marketplace prices reflect installers bidding against each other.

Why the same system costs different amounts

State. The spread runs from about $2.35 per watt in Texas to $3.18 in New Hampshire. That is labour, permitting and local competition, not sunshine.

System size. Bigger systems cost less per watt because permitting, design and crew mobilisation are fixed costs spread over more panels. A 4 kW system might run $2.80 per watt while a 15 kW system drops to $2.42. Past roughly 12 kW the effect flattens out.

Roof surface. Asphalt shingle is the cheapest to mount on. Metal, tile, flat and slate roofs add roughly $0.10 to $0.30 per watt.

What you are actually buying. The panels themselves are only around 12% of the total. The rest is inverters, racking, wiring, permitting, design, labour and the installer's overhead. That is why cheap panels do not make a cheap system.

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Sizing a system

System size follows your electricity usage and your local sun, not your house size. A large, efficient home can need a smaller array than a small, leaky one.

The average US household uses around 10,000 kWh a year and needs roughly 7.5 kW to offset it. EnergySage reports the average quoted system is closer to 12 kW, because the people getting quotes tend to use more than average.

RegionPeak sun hourskW for 10,000 kWh
Southwest — AZ, NM, NV6.05.7 kW
South — TX, FL, GA5.26.6 kW
National average4.77.3 kW
Midwest — IL, OH, MI4.47.8 kW
Northeast — NY, MA, NJ4.08.6 kW
Northwest — WA, OR3.79.3 kW
Includes an 80% derate for inverter loss, wiring, soiling and heat — panels never deliver their nameplate rating in the real world.

The roof problem nobody prices in

Panels last around 27 years. An asphalt shingle roof lasts around 28. If your roof is already fifteen years old when the array goes on, those two numbers collide about a decade from now.

When the roof is replaced, the array has to come off and go back on. That runs several thousand dollars on a typical system — before the roof itself. It is the most expensive avoidable mistake in residential solar, and it is invisible at the point of sale because the solar company is not selling you a roof.

The rule of thumb Fewer than ten years of roof life left, replace the roof first. Ten to fifteen years, get the roof inspected and make a deliberate decision. More than fifteen, go ahead. Doing the roof while it is bare is always cheaper than doing it around an installed array.

The estimator above flags this automatically from the roof age you enter. If it fires, price the roof properly first — the roof estimator works out cost by the square, with the insurance split, and the full roof guide covers material lifespans.

Is solar still worth it without the credit

Honestly: it depends far more on your electricity rate than on the credit ever did.

Solar economics are driven by what you stop paying the utility. In a state at 30¢ per kWh, a system pays back inside the panel warranty even at full price. In a state at 11¢ with poor sun, payback can now stretch past fifteen years — which is a genuinely different proposition from the one being advertised through 2025.

What has not changed is that the savings are real and long. Panels carry 25-year production warranties and typically keep working past that. What has changed is the shape of the deal: no 30% cheque from the government, and therefore a longer wait before the system is ahead.

What is still available

Questions

Is there still a 30% solar tax credit in 2026?

Not for homeowners buying with cash or a loan. Section 25D expired on 31 December 2025 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The commercial credit under Section 48E survives, so a lease or PPA provider still claims 30% and may pass it through as a lower rate.

How much do solar panels cost in 2026?

About $2.58 per watt on marketplace quotes, with a state spread of roughly $2.35 to $3.18. A 10 kW system runs about $25,800 and a 12 kW system about $30,500, before any state incentive and with no federal credit to subtract.

What size solar system do I need?

It follows your annual kWh and your local sun, not your house size. The average US household uses about 10,000 kWh a year and needs roughly 7.5 kW. The same usage in the Northwest needs closer to 9.3 kW because there is less sun to work with.

Should I replace my roof before installing solar?

If it has under ten years left, almost certainly. Panels last around 27 years, and taking an array off and putting it back costs several thousand dollars on top of the roof. Replacing a bare roof is always cheaper.

Is a solar lease better now the credit is gone?

It is the only remaining path to a federal credit, but the credit belongs to the provider. You do not own the system, contracts typically run 20 to 25 years, and many include an annual escalator that raises your rate. It suits people with little tax liability, but it is not free money.

Does solar increase home value?

Owned systems generally do. Leased systems are more complicated, because a buyer has to be willing to take over the contract, and some walk away rather than do so. That difference is worth weighing before signing a 25-year agreement.

Does homeowners insurance cover solar panels?

Roof-mounted panels are usually covered under the dwelling as part of the structure, subject to your deductible and the same covered-peril rules as the roof itself. Tell your insurer the system exists — it raises the replacement cost of your home, and an unreported array can complicate a claim. How coverage actually works applies here too.

What is a good price per watt?

Below $2.80 is competitive in most markets. Around $3.00 to $3.30 is normal in high-cost states or on difficult roofs. Above $3.50 needs a specific explanation — tile roof, long conduit run, panel upgrade — and if there is not one, get another quote.

Related

Where these figures come from Per-watt pricing is cross-checked against EnergySage marketplace data, published state ranges and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Tracking the Sun release of October 2025. Tax treatment reflects the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Public Law 119-21. Payback assumes 2.5% annual utility rate rises and 0.5% annual panel degradation — both are assumptions and your utility may behave differently. This is an estimate for planning, not a quote, and not tax advice. Confirm current incentives on DSIRE and current tax treatment with a tax professional before committing.