Identify the system you have
Record the equipment type and model from accessible labels. A furnace, air conditioner and heat pump are different scopes. Do not assume a quote includes both indoor and outdoor equipment.
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Contractors size a system by tonnage, not by house square footage — and the gap between those two things is where most quotes go wrong. This works it out the way an installer does, then shows what a claim would actually return.
Rates reviewed August 2026
See the illustrated project guide
Written and maintained byMantu Kumar
Evidence review4 August 2026
Calculation rulesRead the methodology
Quality standardEditorial policy
HVAC replacement estimate
No email · nothing sentA closer look at your project
The outdoor unit is only part of HVAC replacement
A similar-looking unit can sit inside a very different project. Identify the equipment and the work around it before comparing totals.
The three detail views below enlarge parts of the same photograph. Use them with the planning checks. Photos are AI-generated illustrations, not installation instructions or actual claim records.
Ask how the size was chosen
Treat the calculator’s sizing input as a planning choice. Ask the installer how the proposed capacity was assessed for your rooms, climate and home condition.
Compare the connecting work
Ask about duct repairs, controls, electrical supply, removal and commissioning. A low equipment price may exclude work needed to put the complete system into service.
Before comparing totals, ask for these details
- Equipment scope
- Outdoor unit, indoor equipment and controls
- Installation scope
- Ductwork, connections, removal and access allowances
- Handover
- Commissioning details, warranty registration and labor coverage
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How systems are sized
Cooling capacity is measured in tons. One ton is 12,000 BTU, and the rule of thumb is roughly one ton for every 400 to 600 square feet — the higher end of that range in hot, humid climates. A 2,000 square foot house typically needs 3.5 to 4 tons.
Oversizing is a real and common mistake. A system that is too large cools quickly, shuts off, and never runs long enough to pull humidity out of the air. The house ends up cold and clammy, and the compressor wears out early from short cycling. A proper installer runs a Manual J load calculation rather than guessing from floor area.
| Home size | Typical tonnage | Change-out range |
|---|---|---|
| 1,000 sq ft | 2.0 tons | $5,500 – $9,500 |
| 1,500 sq ft | 2.5 tons | $6,500 – $11,500 |
| 2,000 sq ft | 3.5 tons | $8,000 – $14,000 |
| 2,500 sq ft | 4.0 tons | $9,000 – $16,000 |
| 3,000 sq ft | 5.0 tons | $10,500 – $19,000 |
What drives the price
System type is the largest single factor. A gas furnace replacement runs roughly $3,500 to $10,000 installed. A central air-source heat pump runs $8,000 to $15,000 — more upfront, but it replaces both units and typically cuts operating costs substantially because it moves heat rather than generating it.
Ductwork is the item that turns a manageable job into an expensive one. Ducts last 15 to 20 years, and replacing them adds $1,400 to $5,600. If your existing ducts are leaky or undersized for a new higher-efficiency unit, a good installer will tell you rather than bolt new equipment onto a failing distribution system.
Refrigerant has quietly pushed prices up. The industry finished switching from R-410A to R-454B in 2025, and the newer refrigerant costs roughly three times more per pound. Equipment prices rose an estimated 8 to 10% as a result. Older R-410A systems can still be serviced, but recharge costs are climbing as supply shrinks.
Federal tax credit: check the current year
Section 25C credits supported qualifying installations through 31 December 2025. Reporting
indicates the credit is not available for equipment placed in service in 2026. Rules change, and
state and utility rebates are separate — check the current IRS guidance and your utility's
programs before assuming a credit applies.
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What insurance covers
Standard homeowners policies treat HVAC the way they treat a roof: sudden covered perils yes, wearing out no. A lightning strike that fries the condenser is covered. A fifteen-year-old compressor that finally quits is not, however expensive the replacement.
Two things worth knowing. First, an outdoor condenser unit is a common theft target for its copper — that is usually covered, subject to your deductible. Second, equipment breakdown coverage is a separate endorsement sold by many carriers that does cover mechanical failure. It is inexpensive and most homeowners do not realize it exists until they need it.
How the ACV and RCV split works applies here in exactly the same way it does for roofs.
HVAC result summaryThe installed result combines equipment, labor, removal and related electrical, refrigerant or permit work. Square footage is only a planning input: a contractor should verify capacity with a Manual J load calculation and commission matched indoor and outdoor equipment.
Questions
How much does a new HVAC system cost?
A furnace and AC change-out with existing ductwork typically runs $5,000 to $11,000. Add new ductwork and it becomes $7,000 to $16,000. Modernize reported a 2026 average of $11,590 to $14,100 across 56,000 projects.
What size HVAC system do I need?
Roughly one ton per 400 to 600 square feet, so a 2,000 square foot home usually needs 3.5 to 4 tons. That is a starting point only — a proper Manual J load calculation accounts for insulation, window area, ceiling height and climate.
Should I replace the furnace and AC at the same time?
If both are over 15 years old, usually yes. The labor overlaps, the contractor only makes one trip, and modern systems are engineered to run as a matched pair. Replacing one half of a mismatched system often costs more over time.
Does homeowners insurance cover HVAC replacement?
Not for age or mechanical failure. It covers sudden covered perils — lightning, fire, falling trees — and typically theft of the outdoor unit. Equipment breakdown coverage is a separate endorsement that does cover mechanical failure, and it is worth asking about.
How long does an HVAC system last?
Gas furnaces commonly reach 15 to 20 years, central AC 12 to 15, and heat pumps 12 to 15 because they run year round. Ductwork lasts 15 to 20. Annual servicing genuinely extends all of these.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a furnace?
Not upfront — a heat pump runs $8,000 to $15,000 against $3,500 to $10,000 for a gas furnace. Operating costs are typically 35 to 45% lower, so the payback depends on your climate and local energy prices. Cold-climate models have improved considerably.
Related
- Solar panel cost — the other system a heat pump changes the math on
- Window replacement — the cheaper way to cut a heating bill
- Claim gap calculator — what a claim on this would actually return
- What insurance actually pays — ACV, RCV and equipment breakdown
Where these figures come from
Rates are cross-checked against 2026 published pricing from HomeGuide, Angi, Modernize and CBS News reporting. HomeGuide puts a furnace-and-AC change-out at $5,000 to $11,000 and a system with new ductwork at $7,000 to $16,000; Modernize reports a 2026 average of $11,590 to $14,100 across 56,000 projects. Depreciation is modeled straight-line against expected service life; carriers use
their own schedules and some cap payouts by age. These are ranges for planning, not quotes,
and nothing here is a coverage determination.
Evidence trail
Reviewed 4 Aug 2026Sources used to check this model
Primary public references anchor equipment guidance, labor context and insurance terminology. Calculator rates remain planning assumptions tested against published market ranges.
System guidanceDOE: Heat pump systems
U.S. labor referenceBLS: HVAC mechanics
Insurance termsNAIC: ACV and replacement cost
These organizations do not endorse ReplaceCost. Local contractor quotes, permits, product specifications and the written insurance policy control the real result. See the full methodology for the source hierarchy and update process.